Econometric Modeling of the Epidemic Cost of Cape Saint Paul Wilt Disease on Coconut Cultivation in Ghana: A Case Study of MYD x VTT Hybrid Coconuts

Danyo G.^1, , M.A. Anyiwe² and Q.E. Osemwegie³

¹Plant Protection Division, Coconut Research Programme, Oil Palm Research Institute, P. O. Box 245, Sekondi, Ghana

²Department of Economics and Statistics, University of Benin, Benin City, Edo State, Nigeria

³Agricultural Economics Division, Nigerian Institute for Oil Palm Research, P.M.B. 1030, Benin City, Edo State, Nigeria

Cite this paper

Danyo G., M.A. Anyiwe and Q.E. Osemwegie. Econometric Modeling of the Epidemic Cost of Cape Saint Paul Wilt Disease on Coconut Cultivation in Ghana: A Case Study of MYD x VTT Hybrid Coconuts. World Journal of Agricultural Research. 2017; 5(1):9-20. doi: 10.12691/WJAR-5-1-3

Abstract

Cape Saint Paul Wilt Disease has destroyed several thousands of hectares of coconut plantings in the main coconut producing regions of Ghana namely, Western, Central, and Volta Regions. The capacity of the disease to decimate coconut populations in active disease foci threatens the coconut industry rehabilitation programmes in Ghana. This study critically evaluates the effect of Cape Saint Paul Wilt Disease on coconut yield, and verifies economic cost of the disease on coconut cultivation in Ghana, using robust econometric models and statistical analytical tools. Disease data from selected Coconut Sector Development Project’s Malayan Yellow Dwarf x Vanuatu Tall hybrid coconut farms spanning eight consecutive years (2008-2015) were used for this important study. Ordinary least squares regression of the data indicates, the disease has significant effect on coconut yield and that expected annual yield of diseased palms and price per unit nut are significant determinants of the economic cost of Cape Saint Paul Wilt Disease on coconut cultivation in Ghana. The disease can cause 100% crop losses if appropriate containment strategies are not implemented in time. These findings confirm the assertion of Danyo that, Cape Saint Paul Wilt Disease of coconut has a significant economic cost. An assertion corroborated much later by Osemwegie. However, compared to the latter, the economic cost of CSPWD on coconut yield is lesser; accentuating the knowledge that hybrid coconuts are less susceptible to the CSPWD than the pure lines.

Keywords

coconut, cape saint paul wilt disease, epidemic cost, econometric modeling

Copyright

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

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